Summarize catalyst, valuation anchor, risk factors, and the explicit condition that proves you wrong. Print it. In stormy days, reread before adding size. Knowing exactly what would invalidate the idea turns stubbornness into discipline, inviting quick pivots when evidence contradicts yesterday’s confident, but incomplete, conviction.
Sketch three plausible paths—bullish, bearish, sideways—and assign triggers and tactics for each. Conduct a pre-mortem: imagine failure, then list reasons. During 1987’s crash and 2008’s seizure, those who rehearsed shocks could act faster, because they had already met the monster in rehearsal, not surprise.